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- Racing tips: Neon Moon is the one they all have to beat at Newbury
Hawthorn Cottage didn't get the easy lead I was hoping for, it didn't help her chances, but the winner was well-handicapped and won nicely so I doubt it would've made much of a difference.
I want to say thanks for the comment who mentioned to have a bet on Mews House, as he was informed of a big run coming. Unfortunately, the horse didn't win but lost by a neck at odds of 50/1! that would've been great to see if he managed to get the win, and thanks for the info, it's always appreciated as I'm sure many in the comments would agree with me.
Kelso 3:35 - The Shunter 15/8 (1pt)
On paper, this race should develop into a two-horse race between THE SHUNTER and Le Milos. I've decided to go with the Irish raider.
Originally, I thought Le Milos would be the one to beat, similar to how the bookies and punters believe. But, his final aim is the Aintree Grand National and this race is surely just a prep run for that. The weights for the National have already come out, so it doesn't matter if he wins or loses this, but considering he was last seen back in November winning the big Coral Gold Cup handicap, they clearly feel like he needs a run, so I think The Shunter is worth taking him on with as he is surely prepped for this, and Emmet Mullins loves winning a big pot, especially in England where he has a 30% SR over the last five years and a 38% from this season alone.
I've seen quotes on social media doing the rounds from Harry Skelton and he mentioned how Le Milos will improve for the run, and that there is more in the tank to work with. Those comments back up my point about how this will be used for a prep run and when you consider the form of The Shunter from a few seasons ago, surely he is the pick in this race.
The Shunter has won at this track, won at the Cheltenham Festival, and has been placed in a Grade 1 at Aintree when touched off by Protektorat, so if he stays this trip, which I think he does, he is a huge player.
Newbury 1:40 - Cloth Cap 4/1 (1pt)
A lot of faith will be needed in backing CLOTH CAP, but I think he is being overlooked in this race and if he bounces back to any form, he will have a huge hand to play in this Veterans Chase off a handicap mark of 135.
If you can look past his most recent run at Doncaster where his jumping fell apart and that gave him no chance, his run at Aintree over the National fences looks like a fairly good effort. The winner has since run some good races over hurdles as he preps for the Grand National and you've got horses in behind who have run okay since. He has dropped 5lbs from that race, which was a lot tougher than today's assignment and he gets his ideal conditions of good ground over 3m 2f on a track he won the Coral Gold Cup back in 2020, which was off 136.
I don't think this race is that strong, you have Cyclop coming into this on the back a win and Mister Malarky running well at Exeter but the latter is carrying 12st and the former had the run of the race and I don't think he beat much that day.
Newbury 2:45 - Sebastopol 7/1 (1pt)
Zanza was a previous winning tip at 16/1 the last time he ran, and if he was to win then I would kick myself, but back into handicapping company I think he might struggle back at this trip running off 12st. Paint The Dream is another who runs off top weight and won this race last year and is 3/3 at the track, but giving the weight away to SEBASTOPOL might be too difficult for the pair of them.
If you take the form literally from last time out, Sebastopol is a shoo-in for this race. I don't read that form for what it is, but I think he is a very good horse on a going day, and as long as his jumping holds up he is a player in any race he turns up in of this calibre as he has bags of ability. I think this race will be suited to him, they'll go a good gallop and combine that with the good ground, that should be right up his street.
His odds should be shorter than what he is, I think he is cracking value.
Newbury 4:35 - Neon Moon 15/8 (2pt)
NEON MOON is probably the NAP of the day, he isn't a great price, but I think if he turns up the same form of the last two runs he should be in tough to beat.
He was very unlucky not to win at Taunton the time before last. He cruised into the race and had the race in the palm of his hands but he was outstayed by a closer. He then went to Ascot for a Grade 3 handicap chase which saw him bump into Cap Du Nord. That was a great effort and losing to Cap Du Nord is no shame as he has been banging on the door for some time in some big handicaps and he was bound to win one of them, as he is always primed for this time of year for Christian Williams who targets those kinds of races. He was well-handicapped that day, so it was no shame in losing, and he ran a belter in runner-up.
The handicapper has been nice to Neon Moon by not putting him up in the handicap and when I compare that race to this, the previous race was much tougher, so surely he is tough to beat in this.
Newbury 5:10 - Meadowsuite 3/1 (1pt)
My rogue pick of the day comes in the finale at Newbury in the bumper. I've not had a great time of backing horses in bumpers this year, so if MEADOWSUITE was to bomb out it wouldn't be a total shock, but I thought it was interesting how Nico De Boinville only has one ride on a Saturday.
Nicky Henderson has won this race four times in the last decade, so is clearly a race he likes to target and save a one for. Nicky has come out and said she is a laid-back and has a great temperament, which is what you want to here for a debutante as you see so many blow their chances away by pulling too hard and not settling, so from those comments she is ready to rock and roll first time out.
Her pedigree stands out with her half-sister being a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and Grade 3 winner over fences, as well as the dam being a full-sister to Le Patriote who was a useful horse for Dr Richard Newland.
Doncaster 1:00 - Park Hill Dancer 11/8 (1pt)
For my last pick of the day, which is one of the earliest to run I've decided to give another chance to PARK HILL DANCER.
This horse made me look like a right mug last time out at Uttoxeter when he pulled like a train and gave the 10lb claimer no chance. I had doubts in my head that he wouldn't stay 3m as the pedigree didn't give me much hope, but I trusted the trainer's decision to race him over 3m, but it's evident he wants shorter.
Now he's back over 2m 4f, he is surely going to take some beating based on the form behind Chianti Classico who won after they met, boosting the form. Gentle Frank has some okay form in the book, but nothing in comparison to Park Hills Dancer's Market Rasen form.
