- OddsDigger
- Tips
- Horse Racing
- Racing tips: A second Eider Chase is on the horizon for Sam's Adventure
This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Friday wasn't a great day, -6.5pts on the day with none of the selections winning. Many were running well below what was expected. Muse Of Fire clearly didn't stay, back at 2m he will win a race and Prime Time Lady was too keen and pulled her chances away at Exeter.
Sorry tomorrow's selections are out early. I'm out tonight, and not sure when I'll be back, so I'm putting them out early so hopefully you can secure some nice prices.
Lingfield 1:30 – One Night Stand 12/1 (0.5pt EW)
At the odds, I think ONE NIGHT STAND is a much bigger player than the market looks and I think they've got this wrong by pricing him up at 20/1 (changed to 12/1 when writing up…)
Yes, he finished 10th/10 last time around, but there's reasons to forgive him and believe he can outrun the odds today. That was his first run of the year, after having a 300 day break. Considering he had that much time off the track, I didn't think he than that bad, though he finished last. I thought it was a nice return to the track, and that was over 6f which he has won over before, but he has better form over today's trip of 5f.
He won this race last year, which is always in the back of your mind when they return. It wouldn't surprise me if this has been their target for a long time, trying to repeat the win of last year. The recent return run wouldn't surprise me as a potential prep run and he is now 1lb lower than when winning it 12 months ago, so surely has every chance of winning.
Lingfield 2:05 – Harrovian 9/1 (1pt ew)
I can understand why Lord North is a short-priced favourite, but I do think he is beatable and worth taking on in this contest. I've decided to take him on with his stablemate, HARROVIAN.
The jockey bookings doesn't surprise or bother me. Most jockeys would pick Lord North in this contest, so the fact Rab Havlin has opted for the favourite over Harrovian doesn't bother me in the slightest, even if I think he might have made the wrong choice.
Harrovian has always been a steady horse, he has never been a top level performer but around this level is where he can run well and grab some decent prize money. He's ran at Lingfield on a couple of occasions, still yet to get a win, but has run well in defeat. He was ahead of Forest Of Dean when they last met at this course, so the fact that horse is shorter in the market makes no sense to me. The form of that race from November looks strong, you have the winner who had been progressing very nicely and the runner-up has since landed two wins in Meydan including a Group 2.
On his previous trip to Lingfield, Harrovian bumped into Pyledriver who is a dual Group 1 winning horse and is definitely no mug. He was in receipt of 7lbs that day, but I still rate that as a fantastic effort to lose by 0.5L.
I can see why punters will think this is an easy win for Lord North, but he's a 7yo and is making his seasonal reappearance and was beaten in this race last year, so chances are this is a prep run for a race in Meydan.
Newcastle 3:25 – Sam's Adventure 15/2 (1pt ew)
I was hoping Christian Williams was going to send Five Star Getaway up for this race, but he's opted for Kitty's Light instead. He is the favourite for this race, and though he is starting to look ridiculously well-handicapped, I can't have him at the current prices.
At the age of 11 you'd probably say that SAM'S ADVENTURE would have no chance in this, but despite him being in his latter years in his career he is still looking enthusiastic with his racing and is well-handicapped on older pieces of form, but his recent win gives confidence he is still capable of running a belter in this.
He was the winner of this race back in 2021, winning it off a mark of 139. When you consider he'll be running off 125 today, he surely has a great chance. We know he stays the trip, which isn't a certainty for many of the horses in the field, he handles the track and he will want the rain to fall which is predicted to come as soft ground will be great for him.
Kempton 3:00 – Frodon 9/1 (1pt ew)
Not sure if Cairnzy will be tipping anything up, I think he is taking a well earnt rest after putting up the winners when I wasn't hear. If that's the case, I'm sure he will be happy reading this one as I like the looks of his favourite horse, FRODON.
You know what you're going to get with Frodon, he will try and lead under Bryony Frost, jumping like a stag all the way round and if his stamina holds up under carrying top weight of 12st, he'll be bang there at the finish. He's not a young lad anymore, now being an 11yo, but he has already proven he can carry big weights in handicaps over the last couple of years, including at Wincanton earlier this season when landing a Grade 3 off 12st. He has previously won a Cheltenham handicap off 11st 12lbs, and we all know he has won a couple of Grade 1's as well.
I think if he is able to carry a top weight in a handicap then this type of track will be one of the places he can do it. He likes it around here, as he previously won a King George and it's a track which benefits those sat close to the pace or leading, which is what Frodon is all about. I don't think this will be easy if he does win, but 9/1 seems a fair price and Nicholls clearly thinks this is the correct target for him.
