Match Preview

Benevento host the mighty AC Milan, haunted by the spectre of an unwanted record. They broke the mark for the worst start to an Italian top-flight season when losing 2-1 at Cagliari a month ago, to become the first side to lose 10 games – breaking Venezia’s record which stood at nine games in 1949-50. They extended that losing streak to 13 games with a 2-1 defeat at home to fellow Serie A strugglers Sassuolo and still seek their first point of the season. After 13 games, 13 losses and just six goals scored, it is hard to make much of a case for Roberto De Zerbi’s side, who were 35 points behind leaders Napoli with 25 games remaining.

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This will be the first time that Benevento, who reached Serie A for the first time via a playoff win over Bari, have met AC Milan, whose away form has been spotty, having suffered defeats at Napoli, Inter, Sampdoria and Lazio.

Our Benevento vs AC Milan preview suggests that the hosts are out of their depth and another defeat is on the cards. We also look at Milan’s current form in our Benevento vs AC Milan predictions, which have been inconsistent but also provides a decent betting opportunity.

Benevento vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Advice

When a superior team takes on an over-matched opponent, as is the case when AC Milan travel to Beneventos, finding the value in the betting markets is never easy. The odds are stacked in favour of the side who will invariably win. Yet given AC Milan’s spotty form, which has also seen them lose at home to Juventus and Roma, making it six defeats in their opening 13 games, the odds to win are less restrictive than they might be at around 1/3 with several firms.

AC Milan have failed to lead at half-time in seven of their opening 13 Serie A games. But they have got their noses in front at the interval on six occasions, including when winning at Crotone and Sassuolo. In contrast, Benevento have managed parity at the interval on just five occasions and have gone in facing a deficit four times in seven home outings.

If Vicenzo Montella’s side has a weakness, it is along their back line. A summer of big spending has not helped the Rossoneri return to former glories and star signing Leonardo Bonucci from Juventus for 40-million euros has simply not panned out as hoped. The switch to a back three has failed to work and they have become increasingly shot-shy. Even the teams they have beaten – Crotone, SPAL, Cagliari, Udinese, Chievo and Sassuolo – are not giants of the Italian game.

Still, it seems there is little value in opposing AC Milan, given the plethora of attacking talent Montella has at his disposal, but at the current football odds, backing the hosts to be level at the break at a shade of odds-on still looks a little too skinny. Our Benevento vs AC Milan betting tips favour the Half-Time/Full-Time option of AC Milan taking control early and gaining a welcome win to keep pace with the top four. Coral offers tremendous value in this market compared to some firms and at their odds, it is worth a speculative dabble.

Benevento’s squad is made up largely of journeymen and loanees, with 12 of the squad being at the club on a temporary basis. They include Newcastle United’s Moroccan defender Achraf Lazaar, who has made nine starts. Goalscoring has been an issue. However, four of their six goals have come in four of the last five games.

Milan have conceded in five of their last six road games in Serie A, although they did gain a first clean sheet since opening day when beating Sassuolo 2-0 in early November. The switch to a back three to accommodate Bonucci has largely failed to work and they have become increasingly shot-shy. Even the teams they have beaten – Crotone, SPAL, Cagliari, Udinese, Chievo and Sassuolo – are not giants of the Italian game.

While a case for Benevento to score against AC Milan as one of the football tips of the day is largely based on conjecture rather than solid statistical fact, there is no question that not all is well within Montella’s camp. It is possible that either AC Milan take the minnows lightly or this would be ideal opportunity to send the manager packing.

So, while we still believe AC Milan will win, it may not be as easy as the odds suggest. For Benevento, it is a caution to the wind time. This is almost a cup final for the home fans and the players will doubtless be up for the fight against the Rossoneri. So, one of our best speculative Benevento vs AC Milan bets is for the hosts to find the net. Bwin offer a shade of odds-on and that looks fair.