The French basketball season got underway last week and there were a few shock results, notably last season’s Pro A runners-up Élan Chalon losing 82-62 to Pau Lacq Orthez. To put this into context, Élan Chalon lost just seven times in 34 league outings last season. In contrast, Limoges CSP lost more than half their games and ended in tenth spot (out of 18). Limoges CSP were also beaten in their first match, going down 71-68 to ASVEL Basket.
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Limoges CSP have a few new faces, bringing in William Howard from Hyeres-Toulon, former Cleveland Cavaliers’ guard Kenny Hayes, point guard Danny Gibson, who played in the Bulgarian NBL with PBC Lukoil Academic last season, and A.J. English who starred at guard with the NCAA Division 1 Iona Gaels last year. Élan Chalon have boosted their squad by signing power forward James Farr, who scored 18 points helping Xavier reach the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2016. Élan Chalon are considered the underdogs on the fixed odds Basketball market, as we state in our Limoges CSP vs Élan Chalon prediction.
One game provides us with little viable evidence, yet history shows that Élan Chalon have the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, winning 10 of the previous 13 with Limoges, including the last five. While we should not read too much into Week 1 results, Élan Chalon were completely embarrassed by Pau Lacq Orthez, who could well be the surprise package in Pro A this season. So, Élan Chalon have the motivation of embarrassment on their side, as well as history. In their last five victories over Limoges CSP, the average winning margin was 10.6 points and even though the hosts also lost on opening night, it is folly to have them as favourites, as we suggest in our LNB Pro A predictions.
It is not uncommon for oddsmakers to overreact to first-day results and the French LNB Pro A betting odds suggest the way this game has been framed is a classic example of this, as the visitors are considered 4.5-point underdogs. Given the fact that an embarrassing loss will often motivate a team, particularly a team that is not used to losing, the value appears to be with Élan Chalon in receipt of points. Sportingbet appears to offer the most generous odds.
Élan Chalon have usually had the upper hand in the first two-quarters when playing Limoges CSP. In their last five meetings, first-half total points tallied 79, 78, 97, 71, and 75. So the 78.5 first-half points-total is a fair reflection of history in the recent head-to-head series. However, Élan Chalon had real trouble scoring in their opening encounter and while we expect the output to be higher, the key for Jean-Denys Choulet’s squad will be to keep things much tighter. This may not be the prolific attack that propelled them to the second spot in Pro A last season and if this is the case, taking a more conservative approach, particularly in the first half, may pay off for those who like betting on the points total. Coral are always excellent at offering a host of markets but their relatively high first-half points total and generous odds represent an outstanding value.