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- Sunday’s Racing Tips – Path To Dubai can bounce back to form now back on the all-weather
Cairnzy is away on Saturday as he has made the trip over to Liverpool to watch his beloved Everton. So with that said, it's just two selections for Sunday's racing.
Rizzel's Tips
Cockalorum 5/1 – Pontefract 5.45
After looking through this race and seeing if I could see a way that Highwaygrey could play a big role and get run late on, I came to the decision that this race doesn't look that strong and I'm more than happy to back the top weight who has been running consistently well in recent times.
Cockalorum is now a 9-year-old but is still operating at a decent level and seems like a gatekeeper for horses who want to go up in class. He has run some cracking races this season, which saw him get a win three runs ago, followed up by two placed efforts in some competitive races, which look a lot stronger than today's race. Over the years, Cockalorum has been best seen when making the running, and that's something that Ben Sanderson employed on his last two runs, but with Jason Hart in the saddle and drawn in Stall 6, I'm not sure whether they'll go for the front running tactics again, but either way, he should be placed prominently and should get a clear run.
The form of his last two runs looks to be the best in this race. The third-placed effort behind Lieber Power looks very strong in comparison to what the other horses in this race have achieved, as the winner has since won a Racing League race and then nearly followed that up with his second Racing League win, but was edged out by a horse who landed the hat-trick. The runner-up from York hasn't franked the form, but the two runs after have come over shorter, which definitely appears to be too short for him, as his runs over 1m 4f previously were good efforts behind the likes of Fairbanks. Obviously, today's race is over 10f and not the 12f that the York race was over, but Cockalorum has always been known for racing over today's trip, and he showed he is still good at this trip when winning a Class 4 race at Beverley and finishing a good second last time out at Ripon behind a younger progressive horse who ran in the Sandown race won by Blake, which looks like strong form with the fourth (Ashariba) winning next time out.
Today's handicap mark and the weight of 10st 2lbs is going to make this tricky, but if he can put in a repeat performance of the last two/three races, that could be good enough in a race which doesn't appear to have the most well-handicapped horses. The 3-year-old horses will carry the threat as they are unexposed, but See That Storm only beat a 68-rated horse, whilst running off a 1lb lower race weight when 8lbs higher in the handicap, by 1L and that doesn't scream out to be impressive.
Path To Dubai EW 10/1 4 places – Southwell 3.55
I am out quite early on Saturday, so these are being typed up before the odds have been released, but going off the forecast odds, which can often be wrong, I thought that Path To Dubai was of interest back on the AW in a race that offers four places.
If you are a supporter of Path To Dubai you're going to need to forgive his last two runs which have been nothing short of terrible. He has finished last on both of his last starts, but you can probably give him the benefit of the doubt. At Kempton, before his gelding operation, Neil Callan looked down at his mount when the horse went backwards very sharply and it did seem something wasn't quite right, so you have to be able to forgive him for that performance as prior to that, he had been running very well and looking like a horse who was progressing nicely on the all-weather. Last time out he made his turf debut and he didn't exactly look in love with the grass, and might've needed the run as he was weak in the market and was never really put into the race.
I think he is worth a chance in this race now he's back on the all-weather and running over 12f. His form prior to his two recent efforts looks strong against some exposed types in this Southwell race. He has already shown a liking to the track as he managed to win here on debut, and then he proved that promise when running well in his follow-up runs at Wolverhampton and back at Southwell. In hindsight, it was a tough task to win on his second run when he bumped into King Of Spain as he was carrying a penalty for his debut win and the winner has since come out and won a Class 3 handicap with ease, and is now rated 81. The third in that race was See That Storm who is in the Cockalorum race, and is the favourite for that race too, so is expected to go well. The time after back at Southwell he bumped into another horse who was on a decent mark. Attila The Honey was racing off a mark of 75 and had a 7lb claimer on board, which effectively meant he was racing off a mark of 68. That horse has since won a Class 3 race at Newbury and was second in the same class race at Ascot the time after off a mark of 87.
Clifford Lee takes the ride today, which isn't a concern from taking over from Neil Callan who has been the main rider for James Tate this year as Clifford sits in second spot for most rides for this yard and he has been the most successful for James. Clifford has a 39% SR for this stable this year, which has seen him get 7 winners from 18 rides, with a further 5 in the top four, which bodes well for the extra place on offer in this race today.
